For those of you unfamiliar with the names of the assorted islands and channels of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago here is a map that hopefully helps:

Plus another map detailing the routes through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago that have previously been successfully navigated by vessels large and small:

The sea ice in Lancaster Sound and the Amundsen Gulf is breaking up, and melt ponds are now visible on the fast ice across much of the southern route through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago:

The melt ponds previously visible in the Coronation Gulf now appear to have drained:

To get a better feel for what might happen during the coming summer season here’s the state of play in the third dimension, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener Institute’s last combined thickness data of the winter from the Cryosat-2, Sentinel 3 and SMOS satellites:

Let’s also take a look at the Canadian Ice Service‘s sea ice “stage of development” charts. Here’s the most recent one for the “Western Arctic”, from June 15th:

There is no old ice anywhere on the southern route, so the stage seems set for the Northwest Passage to open relatively early this summer, with a final “choke point” in the Larsen Sound/Franklin Strait region.

Note that a potential fly in the NWP ointment being a recurrence of last year’s winds that blew old ice in the Beaufort Sea close to shore!

Watch this space!