{"id":755,"date":"2023-07-31T09:14:43","date_gmt":"2023-07-31T09:14:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/2023\/07\/31\/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2023\/"},"modified":"2025-07-14T01:04:56","modified_gmt":"2025-07-13T23:04:56","slug":"facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/2023\/07\/31\/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Facts About the Arctic in August 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>We have grandchildren visiting this week, so it seems prudent to get the new open thread started a day early, and before they wake up!<\/p>\n<p>The ARCUS <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcus.org\/sipn\/sea-ice-outlook\/2023\/july\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sea Ice Prediction Network July report<\/a> has recently been published. Here\u2019s the graphic overview of the 30 predictions for September sea ice monthly average extent:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/greatwhitecon.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SIPN_2023_july.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-23905\" src=\"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SIPN_2023_july-1024x762-1.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SIPN_2023_july-1024x762-1.png 1024w, https:\/\/greatwhitecon.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SIPN_2023_july-300x223.png 300w, https:\/\/greatwhitecon.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SIPN_2023_july-768x572.png 768w, https:\/\/greatwhitecon.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SIPN_2023_july.png 1200w\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"762\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>The July median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.66 million square kilometers with interquartile values of 4.51 and 4.87 million square kilometers, while individual forecasts range from 3.12 and 5.30 million square kilometers. We note the lowest forecast is an outlier, and the only forecast that predicts a new record September sea-ice extent value (current record is September 2012, with a sea-ice extent of 3.57 million square kilometers).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/greatwhitecon.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SIPN_Methods_2023_july.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-23906\" src=\"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SIPN_Methods_2023_july-1024x699-1.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SIPN_Methods_2023_july-1024x699-1.png 1024w, https:\/\/greatwhitecon.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SIPN_Methods_2023_july-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/greatwhitecon.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SIPN_Methods_2023_july-768x524.png 768w, https:\/\/greatwhitecon.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SIPN_Methods_2023_july.png 1168w\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"699\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Compared to the June SIO forecasts, the July median forecast is slightly higher (4.66 million square kilometers vs 4.54 million square kilometers), and the interquartile range is narrower (0.36 million square kilometers compared to 0.56 million square kilometers ), illustrating a lower inter-model uncertainty in the forecasts.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>What do you suppose the odds are of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcus.org\/files\/sio\/panarctic\/2023_july_sio_uclouvain.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the \u201coutlier\u201d prediction<\/a> of <span style=\"font-size: revert;\">3.12<\/span> million km<em>\u00b2<\/em> becoming reality? How about the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcus.org\/files\/sio\/panarctic\/2023_july_sio_anso_iap.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">next lowest<\/a> \u201cdynamic model\u201d prediction of 3.89 million km<em>\u00b2<\/em> ?<\/p>\n<p>Watch this space!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We have grandchildren visiting this week, so it seems prudent to get the new open thread started a day early, and before they wake up!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":756,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=755"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/755\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3269,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/755\/revisions\/3269"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/756"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}