{"id":2771,"date":"2025-03-08T06:45:31","date_gmt":"2025-03-08T04:45:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/?p=2771"},"modified":"2025-03-14T06:49:36","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T04:49:36","slug":"glaciers-and-geopolitics-why-iceland-matters-for-european-security","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/2025\/03\/08\/glaciers-and-geopolitics-why-iceland-matters-for-european-security\/","title":{"rendered":"Glaciers and geopolitics: Why Iceland matters for European security"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Iceland may be small, but its strategic importance is vast. As Trump questions NATO commitments, European allies must step up before the Arctic becomes the next geopolitical flashpoint<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/510170681-1280x720-c-center-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"An aerial view shows the Vatnajokull glaciers meeting the mainland are melting into the ocean or forming lagoons due to global warming and climate change, February 2025 Image by picture alliance \/ Anadolu | Evrim Aydin \u00a9\" class=\"wp-image-2772\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/510170681-1280x720-c-center-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/510170681-1280x720-c-center-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/510170681-1280x720-c-center-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/510170681-1280x720-c-center.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">An aerial view shows the Vatnajokull glaciers meeting the mainland are melting into the ocean or forming lagoons due to global warming and climate change, February 2025<br>Image by picture alliance \/ Anadolu | Evrim Aydin \u00a9<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Donald Trump\u2019s return to the US presidency has been a geopolitical whirlwind, ranging from <a href=\"https:\/\/ecfr.eu\/article\/greenland-with-envy-how-europeans-should-respond-to-trumps-obsession\/\">threatening<\/a> to buy Greenland to <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/administration\/5167646-trump-zelensky-dictator\/\">branding<\/a> the Ukrainian president a \u201cdictator\u201d. He has also cast <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/europe-brace-us-trump-end-nato-germany-friedrich-merz-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">doubts<\/a> on America\u2019s commitment to European security, going so far as to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/national-security\/trump-considering-major-nato-policy-shift-rcna195089\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">consider<\/a> not defending NATO members that do not reach the defence spending target. As European countries frantically <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/eu-leaders-back-defence-surge-support-zelenskiy-after-us-aid-freeze-2025-03-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reassess<\/a> their defences in response, they should not forget one country in particular: Iceland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A country of fewer than 400,000 inhabitants, Iceland is a founding member of NATO and the only alliance member without its own military. The cornerstones of its security strategy are NATO membership and a bilateral defence <a href=\"https:\/\/www.government.is\/diplomatic-missions\/embassy-of-iceland-in-washington-d.c\/iceland-and-the-us\/#:~:text=Iceland%20concluded%20a%20bilateral%20Defence,in%20the%20North%20Atlantic%20area.\">agreement<\/a> with the United States. As it partially depends on America for its security and spends nothing on defence (at least not in the traditional sense), Iceland would be left particularly vulnerable if Trump scrapped their defence agreement or reduced American commitments to NATO. Both of which would ultimately weaken European countries\u2019 security in the Arctic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"strategic-iceland\">Strategic Iceland<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Iceland sits at a strategic point. Its location between Greenland and the United Kingdom helps NATO defend the maritime channels where the Arctic Ocean and Norwegian Sea feed into the Atlantic Ocean. This area is known as the GIUK gap\u2014its name an acronym for the space between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed alignright is-type-wp-embed is-provider-datawrapper wp-block-embed-datawrapper\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"responsive-embed widescreen\"><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"GIUK Gap and Arctic transport routes\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/TfJbR\/13\/#?secret=cS77lwq2yr\" data-secret=\"cS77lwq2yr\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"719\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>During the cold war, these passages were the only way for Russian submarines to access the Atlantic from Russia\u2019s northern bases. It is for this reason Winston Churchill, quoting German general Karl Haushofer, once <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/pl\/natohq\/declassified_162083.htm\">said<\/a>, \u201cwhoever possesses Iceland holds a pistol firmly pointed at England, America, and Canada.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just like during the cold war, Iceland\u2019s Keflavik base serves as a NATO outpost for monitoring Russian military movements in the Arctic. Iceland <a href=\"https:\/\/www.government.is\/topics\/foreign-affairs\/national-security\/#:~:text=Iceland%20operates%20an%20Air%20Defence,Air%20Command%20and%20Control%20System\">operates<\/a> an Air Defence and Surveillance System that scrutinises hundreds of square kilometres of airspace, which supports NATO air surveillance missions. Iceland also plays a key role in undersea submarine surveillance in the Arctic, though it largely <a href=\"https:\/\/news.usni.org\/2024\/10\/29\/russias-arctic-rise\">relies<\/a> on the US for support in this domain. Thus, from Iceland, it is possible look out for potential threats and signs of escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Iceland\u2019s strategic importance will therefore increase as the defence climate changes\u2014and as the climate itself changes. Rising global temperatures have caused the permafrost covering the Arctic Ocean to melt at a rapid rate. This is opening new commercial <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gisreportsonline.com\/r\/arctic-security-transformation\/\">opportunities<\/a> for exploring the largest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unclosdebate.org\/evidence\/1171\/arctic-region-contains-largest-unexplored-deposits-oil-left#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20U.S.%20Geological,cubic%20feet%20of%20natural%20gas.\">untapped hydrocarbon reserves<\/a> in the world and developing the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thearcticinstitute.org\/future-northern-sea-route-golden-waterway-niche\/\">Northern Sea Route<\/a>\u2014the shortest maritime shipping route connecting Europe and Asia. Russia has the largest claim to these because it controls over <a href=\"https:\/\/arctic-council.org\/about\/states\/russian-federation\/#:~:text=Russia%20stretches%20over%2053%20percent,living%20in%20the%20Arctic%20worldwide.\">half<\/a> the Arctic coastline, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thearcticinstitute.org\/russias-arctic-strategy-energy-extraction-part-three\/\">majority<\/a> of the region\u2019s undiscovered oil reserves fall within Russia\u2019s exclusive economic zone. The Arctic is also home to Russia\u2019s Northern Fleet and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S1873965224000070\">hosts<\/a> the majority of its nuclear missile-carrying strategic submarines. Together, these developments are reshaping the geopolitical importance of the Arctic, of which Iceland is stuck in the middle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Should tensions from other conflicts spill into the Arctic, NATO and European Arctic allies must ensure Iceland\u2019s security remains intact<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Before the war in Ukraine, Russia tended to abide by the norms governing the Arctic and engaged in the <a href=\"https:\/\/arctic-council.org\/\">Arctic Council<\/a>, the foremost forum for international cooperation in the region. Yet, since Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, cooperation via this forum has effectively <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thearcticinstitute.org\/shifting-ice-russian-invasion-ukraine-arctic-circle-governance-arctic-councils-path-forward\/\">halted<\/a> and Moscow has ramped up <a href=\"https:\/\/europeanleadershipnetwork.org\/report\/countering-russias-hybrid-threats-in-the-arctic\/\">hybrid attacks<\/a> against Arctic actors. Should tensions from other conflicts spill into the Arctic, NATO and European Arctic allies must ensure Iceland\u2019s security remains intact. If not, and Iceland loses its ability to monitor and deter threats, Europeans face a higher risk of conflict in the Arctic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"iceland-as-part-of-european-security\">Iceland as part of European security<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Iceland is more vulnerable than it was three years ago\u2014or even three weeks ago. The US administration\u2019s rhetoric has called into question Iceland\u2019s defence strategy amid Russia\u2019s incursions in the region. Greater Arctic instability would have ramifications for other European Arctic actors like Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark, whose resultant vulnerability would weaken European security at large.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the face of these challenges, Europe needs to increase defence spending and invest more in Arctic monitoring and policing capabilities. Iceland must be part of any Arctic defence strategy going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>European Arctic allies should take greater responsibility for Iceland\u2019s defence in NATO exercises. In particular, European militaries should lead in defence drills like the <a href=\"https:\/\/mc.nato.int\/media-centre\/news\/2024\/exercise-northern-viking-strengthens-natos-strategic-posture-in-the-north-atlantic\">Northern Viking<\/a>, which has typically been led by the US in the past. NATO member states like Denmark and the UK can also work closely with Iceland to ensure there is a strategy in place for securing the GIUK gap. The UK recently <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/news\/uk-and-norway-kickstart-new-defence-agreement-in-boost-for-european-security\">announced<\/a> a new defence agreement with Norway to boost European security in the Arctic, and there is an opportunity to pursue a similar action in Iceland as well. Denmark\u2019s plan to spend $2.05bn to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/aerospace-defense\/denmark-announces-21-bln-arctic-military-investment-plan-2025-01-27\/\">boost<\/a> its military strength in the Arctic is also a welcome development. In the face of a less engaged, or even antagonistic US, Denmark should build on this by also investing in surveillance capabilities and enlisting its Nordic neighbours to do the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the future, Europeans might also be able to strengthen Iceland\u2019s security via the European Union. Although Iceland has been ambivalent about joining the bloc, its government said it aims to put the question to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/my-europe\/2024\/12\/22\/icelands-incoming-government-says-it-will-put-eu-membership-to-referendum-by-2027\">referendum<\/a> by 2027. If Icelanders vote to join the EU, then the bloc would do well to make provisions for the island\u2019s economic and security interests as well as potentially prepare for a more strategic role in the Arctic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, NATO is as weak as its weakest link. And if the US is no longer <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/trump-if-nato-members-dont-pay-us-wont-defend-them-2025-03-07\/\">willing to defend<\/a> members that do not spend enough of their GDP on defence, it may be time for Iceland to reassess its long-standing defence strategy. In the meantime, Europeans must take up the torch for defending the island that sits stranded between Europe and North America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Iceland may be small, but its strategic importance is vast. As Trump questions NATO commitments, European allies must step up before the Arctic becomes the next geopolitical flashpoint.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2771","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2771"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2771\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2773,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2771\/revisions\/2773"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2772"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2771"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2771"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2771"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}