{"id":2235,"date":"2024-09-24T01:14:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-23T23:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/?p=2235"},"modified":"2024-09-22T22:21:50","modified_gmt":"2024-09-22T20:21:50","slug":"can-the-west-and-russia-co-operate-to-save-a-melting-arctic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/2024\/09\/24\/can-the-west-and-russia-co-operate-to-save-a-melting-arctic\/","title":{"rendered":"Can the West and Russia Co-operate to Save a Melting Arctic?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u201cHalf the Arctic is now a black box of empty data\u201d as Russian scientists and journalists no longer work with the Arctic Council<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

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A polar bear lying on melting sea ice looks into open water waiting for a seal. Photo: James Cresswell\/Alamy <\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

In late June, Russian scientists in Yakutia performed an autopsy on a wolf that was frozen in permafrost for approximately 44,000 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Located in the north of Eastern Siberia, Yakutia accounts for approximately one-third of Russia\u2019s Arctic zone. 95% of Yakutia, a vast region of swamps and forests, is covered in permafrost\u2014<\/em> a rock sediment or ice that remains at or below zero degrees Celsius for two or more years and which locks up carbon from dead vegetation.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s estimated there is four times more carbon trapped in permafrost than all combined CO2 emissions in modern human history. The release of this carbon into the atmosphere is irreversible and will lead to rising sea levels, changing temperatures and more extreme weather patterns. Presently, the Arctic region is warming at three to four times faster than the rest of the planet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe hot spots of Arctic warming found in Siberia are unique,\u201d said German permafrost scientist, Dr Anne Morgenstern, who has spent more than fifteen years doing fieldwork in Siberia, where she was previously responsible for coordinating Russian-German collaboration for the Alfred Wegener Institute. \u201cBut the data is no longer flowing to the west from the Arctic region of Russia.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The exchange of data stopped in March 2022. Just days after Russia launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine, the seven other states of the Arctic Council suspended cooperation with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Arctic Council<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Established in 1996, the Arctic Council is made up of eight nations that have territories within the Arctic: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, the United States and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consensus-based organisation does not address matters related to the military or to hard security. It focuses instead on soft power issues, like sustainable development and scientific research, all of which need to be approved by the eight member states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAt the senior official level, we still do not have any meetings between the eight member states,\u201d said Morten H\u00f8glund, who is the current Chair of the Senior Arctic Officials. \u201cTaking one country\u2014 especially a big one like Russia\u2014 out of the Arctic Council doesn\u2019t actually make much sense, because then we are not a full Arctic body.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Science, especially when it comes to the study of nature, should be outside politics\u2026 The losing side here will be all the Arctic countries, and, unfortunately, all of humanity, – Nikolai Shabalin<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The ongoing suspension of the Arctic Council means Western scientists no longer have access to field sites in Russia, to assess permafrost data and other climate change-related problems. They now rely on what they can see from space, satellite images, and scientific models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Troy Bouffard, Director at the Center for Arctic Security and Resilience (CASR) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said scientific models attempting to predict phenomena related to climate change, including permafrost, are hard to trust in the absence of Russian data. \u201cWhen the global scientific community does not share data, we don\u2019t produce reliable scientific models,\u201d said Bouffard. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[With] ground-based observations now [coming] mainly from the non-Russian parts of the Arctic, the ability to monitor the status and trajectory of the Arctic biome may be severely limited over the foreseeable future,\u201d wrote authors of a paper co-published this past January in the scientific journal, Nature<\/em>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHalf the Arctic is now a black box of empty data,\u201d said Jennifer Spence, Project Director of the Arctic Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School\u2019s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs: \u201cSweden and Finland becoming members of NATO<\/a> has created new dynamics within the Arctic Council,\u201d Spence added \u201cwhich now consists of seven NATO nations and Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anne Morgenstern said most Western permafrost scientists understand that this current situation, which prohibits them from travelling to Russia, will last for many years. \u201cAt least as long as the war<\/a> in Ukraine continues and as long as there is no regime change in Russia,\u201d she said, also pointing out that Western scientists who previously worked in the Russian Arctic cannot simply pick up where they left off in February 2022: \u201cThe situation has changed so dramatically that everything will have to be developed from scratch.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In April 2023, Russia held joint coast guard training exercises with China, signing a memorandum on extensive long-term cooperation in Arctic waters. Over the last year, Russia has also publicly expressed that it is seeking cooperation in the Arctic with several allies, including Brazil, India, China, and South Africa, who previously did not have a major role there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Loss to Climate Science<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nikolai Shabalin, director of the Marine Research Center at Lomonosov Moscow State University, said \u201cIf [western] neighbours do not want to talk to us, and research work needs to be carried out, then of course it makes sense to collaborate with countries interested in Arctic research.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Russian scientists working in the Arctic region, nothing has fundamentally changed. \u201cMarine expeditionary work in the Russian sector of the Arctic does not depend on contributions to the Arctic Council and was not funded by it,\u201d said Shabalin, who was Special Representative for Maritime Activity in the Arctic Region, when Russia held the chairmanship of the Arctic Council between 2021 and 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Byline Times <\/em>contacted two other Russian researchers, and one political figure associated with the Arctic Council, but none responded. One Russian environmental journalist, currently living in exile in Germany, who wished to remain anonymous, said they \u201cknew some Russian Arctic researchers, but they are very cautious speaking to international journalists these days, unfortunately.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Receive the monthly Byline Times<\/em> newspaper and help to support fearless, independent journalism that breaks stories, shapes the agenda and holds power to account.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Jennifer Spence said it was getting increasingly difficult for Western scientists to maintain any kind of relationships with Russian researchers. \u201cThere are more restrictions and more concerns about the personal safety of researchers in Russia,\u201d she said. \u201cThe Russian government<\/a> does not want Russian scientists to participate in researcher-to-researcher collaboration with their Western counterparts and so Russian researchers are starting to feel that pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere have been some cases of Russian scientists accused of handing over data to foreign partners,\u201d said Anna Morgenstern, \u201cwhich was previously just considered normal scientific practice.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This past February, Russia suspended its annual payments to the Arctic Council and threatened to leave the consensus-based organisation entirely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nikolai Shabalin said if the West and Russia cannot find ways to cooperate in the Arctic region it would create \u201cpotential dangers\u201d. Not least because the Russian Arctic constitutes approximately half of the entire Arctic region. \u201cIt is impossible to ignore half of the Arctic region and then provide an adequate assessment of global processes related to climate change and permafrost degradation,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cScience, especially when it comes to the study of nature, should be outside politics,\u201d Shabalin concluded. \u201cThe losing side here will be all the Arctic countries, and, unfortunately, all of humanity.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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