{"id":206,"date":"2023-03-15T05:49:18","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T05:49:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/2023\/03\/15\/the-primacy-of-doubt\/"},"modified":"2023-04-15T17:37:07","modified_gmt":"2023-04-15T17:37:07","slug":"the-primacy-of-doubt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/2023\/03\/15\/the-primacy-of-doubt\/","title":{"rendered":"The Primacy of Doubt"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Recently Judith Curry published a series of articles on the topic of blackouts. Since attempting to prevent such things is my \u201cprofessional\u201d speciality I\u2019ve spent a bit of time over at \u201cClimate Etc.\u201d recently. Hence I couldn\u2019t help but notice Judith\u2019s article<\/a> on Tim Palmer<\/a>\u2018s new book, entitled \u201cThe Primacy of Doubt\u201d. According to Judith:<\/p>\n

This book is a physics-intellectual feast.  Must read.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Hence I immediately rushed online and bought a copy from amazon.co.uk<\/a>, which arrived today. A more detailed overview will follow once I\u2019ve had a chance to read the whole book, but leafing through it this evening I couldn\u2019t help but notice this quotation from Richard Feynman at the very start:<\/p>\n

Our freedom to doubt was born of a struggle against authority in the early days of science. It was a very deep and strong struggle. Permit us to question \u2014 to doubt, that\u2019s all \u2014 not to be sure.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

My gaze also alighted on the final paragraph of chapter 10 \u2013 \u201cDecisions! Decisions!\u201d:<\/p>\n

Just as with weather prediction, a cost-loss analysis can help you make a decision about whether to take anticipatory action regarding climate change\u2026<\/p>\n

Based on the way we value our own existence in other areas of life, there does indeed seem to be a strong argument that we should act now, uncertainties about future climate change notwithstanding.<\/p>\n

But this is ultimately a decision which each of us must make, e.g. in deciding which politicians to vote for.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Of course being a citizen of the once Great British banana republic I don\u2019t get to vote on our next Prime Minister!<\/p>\n

I think I\u2019ll go and pass this news on to Judith and her denizens forthwith. Meanwhile here\u2019s a quotation from the back cover. According to Suki Manabe, winner of the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The Primacy of Doubt is an important book by one of the pioneers of dynamical weather prediction, indispensable for daily life, describing how the approach can be used for prediction in other areas, such as climate, health, economy, and conflict.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

<\/a>[Edit \u2013 October 22nd]<\/strong><\/p>\n

I\u2019m still rather busy trying to help keep the UK\u2019s lights on, so I have yet to even begin reading \u201cThe Primacy of Doubt\u201d from cover to cover. However here is another brief extract, from the chapter on \u201cClimate Change\u201d:<\/p>\n

We understand these [water vapour, albedo] feedback processes reasonably well. However, there is another feedback process associated with water that we understand rather poorly. This is the cloud feedback process.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

<\/a>[Edit \u2013 October 25th]<\/strong><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s another extract from chapter 6 (page 115):<\/p>\n

The question of whether clouds act as a positive or negative feedback on climate change can\u2019t at present be answered unambiguously: indeed, I would say it is the biggest unsolved problem in physical climate-change science.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Watch this space!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recently Judith Curry published a series of articles on the topic of blackouts. Since attempting to prevent such things is my \u201cprofessional\u201d speciality I\u2019ve spent a bit of time over at \u201cClimate Etc.\u201d recently. Hence I couldn\u2019t help but notice…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=206"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":399,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206\/revisions\/399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}