{"id":1993,"date":"2024-07-27T01:19:37","date_gmt":"2024-07-26T23:19:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/?p=1993"},"modified":"2024-07-22T01:25:02","modified_gmt":"2024-07-21T23:25:02","slug":"ancient-arctic-organisms-key-threat-in-global-polycrisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/2024\/07\/27\/ancient-arctic-organisms-key-threat-in-global-polycrisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Ancient Arctic Organisms Key Threat in Global \u2018Polycrisis\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

UN Environment Programme adds permafrost melt and AI-controlled drones to a long list of environmental and social threats.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

When a mysterious anthrax outbreak<\/a> hit communities on the Yamal peninsula, Northwest Siberia, in 2016, scientists initially traced it back to the local reindeer population, which had been ravaged by the disease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But deeper investigation found this strand of anthrax may have originated from ancient bacteria that had been trapped for millennia in the region\u2019s permafrost, which were only now being released as a result of global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scientists at the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) have now warned in a new report<\/a> that many more \u201creservoirs of ancient, mostly uncharacterised microorganisms and viruses\u201d could be lurking under the tundra \u2013 which is warming at four times the global average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
U.S. Geological Survey photo.\nPermafrost stores large amounts of carbon that may be released to ecosystems and the atmosphere when permafrost thaws. These bluffs are on the bank of Alaska\u2019s Canning River in 2019. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Taken together with the well-known risk<\/a> that trapped methane could be released as the region warms \u2013 adding dangerous amounts of the potent greenhouse gas into the atmosphere \u2013 the report cited permafrost thaw as \u201ca critical issue with severe impacts for people and the environment\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Welcome to the \u2018polycrisis\u2019<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ancient frozen pathogens were just one of the more eye-catching risks in a long list of threats detailed in the UNEP report, released this week and entitled \u2018Navigating New Horizons: A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of the identified risks are, unsurprisingly, environmental. The rush for critical minerals to fuel the energy transition and the growth of artificial intelligence (AI), for example, will pose risks to nature and biodiversity and increase pollution, as mining companies plunder the land and oceans in search of these valuable metals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But many of the factors on the list are not necessarily linked to sustainability \u2013 including the role of AI in warfare, for example, and a growing distrust of institutions. But combined with environmental crises, they create a complex web of dangerously destabilising forces, which the UNEP refers to as a \u2018polycrisis\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe rapid rate of change, uncertainty and technological developments we\u2019re seeing, against a backdrop of geopolitical turbulence, means any country can be thrown off course more easily and more often,\u201d said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen at an event marking the report\u2019s launch in New York on Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBy monitoring signals of change and using the foresight approach outlined in this report \u2013 including looking outside the traditional environmental space \u2013 the world can avoid repeating mistakes of the past and focus on solutions that can withstand future disruption.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diseases and robots<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Along with ancient Arctic pathogens, the risk of more conventional zoonotic diseases \u2013 that is, diseases that pass from animals to humans, of which coronaviruses are an example \u2013 is also rising as a result of land-use change, deforestation, habitat destruction, urbanisation, wildlife trafficking and unsustainable agricultural practices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The resistance of bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites to the effects of antimicrobial drugs is another risk that\u2019s \u201capproaching critical levels\u201d, the UNEP warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI also figured high on the list of threats \u2013 particularly for its use in warfare and synthetic biology, and the carbon emissions resulting from its intensive use of electricity. However, the report also stressed the technology could provide many solutions to the polycrisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The risks were grouped into what the UNEP designated as eight \u201ccritical shifts\u201d: the changing relationship between humans and the environment; competition over critical resources; AI and technology; changing nature of conflict and warfare; mass forced displacement; persistent and widening inequalities; misinformation, declining trust and polarisation; and polycentricity and diffusion of governance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report ended with proposed solutions, including reforms to the global financial system that would lower sovereign borrowing costs, increase lending by development banks, developing more incentives to invest in the clean energy transition, and aligning the financial system with the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also called for a new social contract that recognises the challenges of the polycrisis, giving young people a strong voice, and a new \u201cframework for prosperity\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Permafrost \u2018freaks me out\u2019<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEvery time I read these reports I\u2019m just petrified \u2013 the permafrost freaks me out,\u201d Camila Zepeda, Mexico\u2019s Chief Climate and Biodiversity Negotiator, said during the launch event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She urged finance ministers around the world to read the report, saying they are the ones that could fund the solutions \u201cin advance of all this frightening data\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zepeda also urged policymakers to forge \u201clinks with the private sector\u201d. \u201cWe\u2019ve got all the science mapped out,\u201d she said. \u201cNow we need to reach and make sure that the people who need to read this understand what we are looking at.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also speaking during the launch in New York, Olga Skaredina, representing UNEP\u2019s Children and Youth Major Group, called on various stakeholders across government, business and NGOs to collaborate rather than work in silos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are entering an era of polycrisis where each crisis is going to amplify the other,\u201d she said, calling for \u201cagile governance\u201d and the \u201cactive participation of civil society\u201d \u2013 including from young people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peter Gluckman, President of the International Science Council, deemed that the report provided a useful set of tools to step outside of short-termism and identify future opportunities and risks \u2013 \u201cprovided that it is done in a truly pluralistic manner, transcending narrow institutional mandates, sectors and other artificial divides that constrain our framing of the problems and solutions\u201d, he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

UN Environment Programme adds permafrost melt and AI-controlled drones to a long list of environmental and social threats.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1994,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1993","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1993"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1993\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1995,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1993\/revisions\/1995"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1994"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcticwatch.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}