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Analysis

Trump’s Manifest Destiny in the Arctic: The Greenland Gamble

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In the first term of his presidency, Donald Trump threw into consideration the option to purchase Greenland. At first, it was considered an eccentric impulse.

photo: pexels
photo: pexels

In the first term of his presidency, Donald Trump threw into consideration the option to purchase Greenland. At first, it was considered an eccentric impulse, but the revival of this kind of rhetoric in his second term, supplemented with threats to Denmark, has turned amusement into concern. This practice is no longer just an interesting peculiarity that one country ignores the other. But, it is a real foreign policy problem as it is reported that Trump was aggressive and confrontational about Danish PM Frederiksen’s refusal to sell Greenland to the US on a fiery phone call. What Trump proposes is nothing more than the revival of ‘Manifest Destiny’ reimagined for the geopolitically sound Arctic region. While couched in strategies and economics, his plan is mainly a move to counter China’s rising influence and existing Russian influence in the Arctic waters. However, it ignores both Denmark’s and Greenland’s sovereignty, alienates Nordic friends, and jeopardizes America’s global image and its years-long rhetoric of being a protector of liberal values.

The term ‘Manifest Destiny,’ coined in the middle of the nineteenth century, expressed the view that God ordained expanding the USA territory. It was a worldview, reminiscing the White Man’s Burden, that justified the taking of territories and the displacement of Indigenous persons in the name of progress. Trump’s desire to buy Greenland is a perfect example of this kind of civilizing mission at work in the modern world. Historically, the United States has employed the same techniques in order to gain control over crucial territories. The purchase of Alaska from Russia in 1867, initially treated as “Seward’s Folly (a foolish purchase because of the land’s lack of habitability and far north location),” ultimately proved vital for the United States geopolitics and accommodating mineral resources. Trump likely views Greenland on the same lines—a vast expanse of territory rife with natural resources that will affirm American hegemony in the Arctic region.

This expansionist mindset is not only confined to Greenland. Recently, Trump has not hidden his lusting desire for Canada by proposing to make it the 51st state of America. In addition, he has made comments about ‘taking back’ the Panama Canal, completely disregarding Panama’s sovereignty and falsely claiming it to be under Beijing’s control. He also goes further in astronomical scope – and invokes Manifest Destiny by wishing to send the Americans to Mars. Although Trump isn’t the first U.S. President with expansionist designs, his setting of this externalization is distinctly imperialistic and, to a degree, unprecedented: it supposes that territories and even planets are available assets for acquisition by the United States.

The attractiveness of investment in Greenland can be associated with the country’s vast geopolitical and economic potential. New shipping lanes are opening as the ice in the Arctic melts, and Greenland is right in the middle of this change. The island also possesses the Kvanefjeld site, known for having large deposits of Rare Earth elements, such as uranium, thorium, yttrium, scandium, and neodymium, essential for industries, including the new renewable energy sectors and defense. In addition, the Thule Air Base, formally renamed Pituffik Space Base, fortifies America’s strategic missile defense and improves space reconnaissance, making Greenland a strategic asset for the Americans regarding the Arctic region.

Yet, China’s role in the Arctic somewhat disrupts American ambitions. In the last decade, Beijing has been bidding on infrastructure projects such as airports and mining sites in Greenland. Such investments fit into China’s more extensive Arctic plans and complement its Belt and Road Initiative. Although China approaches its initiatives as mutually beneficial, Western powers have, as expected, associated Chinese investment with debt-trap and voiced worry over possible dual-use motivators for warfare and strategic purposes without any evidence.  To some extent, Trump’s interest in Greenland seems like a reaction to this, as Greenland’s rare earth resources could allow the US to reduce its dependence on China and enhance its supply chain security. However, while China seizes political influence by creating economic bonds, Trump’s policies and rhetoric rely on imperialist views, which offend Greenland and Denmark.

Trump’s keenness to own Greenland implies that he does not consider it a violation of Greenland’s territorial integrity. Trump fails to realize Greenland is not merely a pawn in this geopolitical chessboard. The nearly 60,000 residents of Greenland, primarily Inuit (a group of culturally and historically similar Indigenous peoples inhabiting the Arctic and Subarctic region), have long sought to maintain control over their resources and governance. In response, Denmark steadily loosened its hold on Greenland by granting more and more freedom, and the prospect of complete independence was no longer a remote impossibility. President Trump’s narrative eradicates these dreams and puts the island in the basket of mere strategic commodities. The threats he has directed towards Denmark, like imposing tariffs in order to force the sale of Greenland, depict American imperialism, reminiscent of the past era.

This is largely in contrast to Beijing’s approach. Allying itself with infrastructure development and economic investments, Beijing presents itself as a polite and respectful partner. Clearly, China’s motivation is not entirely benevolent, as it holds a monopoly over the production and processing of most of the global rare earth elements. But, its approach to creating influence is not even remotely close to imperialistic in nature compared to Trump’s seemingly blatant expansionist vision. Therefore, the Chinese side consolidates its position in the Arctic without causing the same reaction to Trump’s initiatives.

The proponents of the Trump plan believe that the US would have a lot to gain regarding the possible control over Greenland. It would build up more capacities for the United States military, provide control over crucial minerals, and enhance American domination on the Arctic regulation and new shipping channels. Yet these prospects have to be achieved at a great price. Explicitly incorporating Greenland into the United States is not financially feasible; purchasing the territory in question would require considerable investment, especially for building infrastructure and resource extraction. This financial burden, coupled with the diplomatic consequences of offending Denmark and the European Union, signifies that the plan is not feasible and sustainable.

More importantly, Trump’s war of words threatens to erode America’s reputation even further. When Trump refers to Greenland as a territory that the U.S. deserves to dominate, he only adds to imperialism impressions of America. This contrasts with strategies that have taken years for the US to prove that it respects state sovereignty and international cooperation. The fallout evoked a response in Europe and emboldened China to capitalize on Trump’s comments about Greenland, using them to undermine U.S. diplomatic efforts to urge restraint in the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, any misstep in such a geopolitically vulnerable area as the Arctic could cause ripples that will be relevant for centuries.

Trump’s aim to take Greenland as an effort to protect the territory can fairly be described as an Orwellian (government controlling people’s lives) approach. His promises of benefiting the Greenlanders fall flat when accompanied by his continuous threatening rhetoric against Denmark and a complete disrespect to local self-determination. On the contrary, using an investment-driven model approach, China is coming across as a more systematic and responsible actor in the world. Therefore, if Washington wants to stop driving away its allies, curtail China’s influence, and avoid undercutting America’s standing as a democratic leader protecting the sovereignty of states, it should base its actions on the principles of cooperation and respect for the Greenlanders’ wish to not be under American control, together with establishing close collaboration with Denmark and other Arctic countries.

Trump’s expansionist declarations, combined with his efforts to make a first decisive move in the Arctic region as a counter to China’s growing global influence, can yield success in the short term, tactically speaking. Still, it poses an irreversible threat to America’s international reputation and could cause a cobra effect (unintended negative consequence) that benefits China in the process. Whether his euphemistic statements are hoaxes designed to energize the domestic audience that voted for him or materialize in igniting further chaos is to be seen. However, Trump’s vision indeed represents an alarming reawakening of Manifest Destiny that chooses U.S. continental growth and strategic goals above diplomatic norms and moral standards. Through his statements, he has opened Pandora’s box by going for Greenland, intending to destroy the very values the American society says it wants to uphold in the world.

Authors: Muhammad Rauhan Rasheed and Dr. Rizwan Naseer. Dr. Rizwan Naseer is a Senior Research Fellow and Director of the China and East Asia Programme at the Institute of Regional Studies in Islamabad.

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