The first sea ice outlook report for 2024 has been published by the Sea Ice Prediction Network:

This year’s median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.48 million square kilometers with an interquartile range of 4.21 to 4.74 million square kilometers. This is slightly lower than the 2022 (4.57 million square kilometers) and 2023 (4.54 million square kilometers) June median forecasts for September.

The lowest sea-ice extent forecast is 3.1 million square kilometers, from the UK Met Office, which would be a new record low for the satellite period (1979-present); the highest sea-ice extent forecast is 5.21 million square kilometers, submitted by both the HEU Group and SYSU/SML-MLM, which would be the highest September extent since 2015:

There are three heuristic Outlooks, with a median of 4.32 million square kilometers and an interquartile range of 4.26 to 4.4 million square kilometers. Statistical submissions total fifteen Outlooks with a median of 4.68 million square kilometers and an interquartile range of 4.47 to 4.9 million square kilometers. There are nine dynamical model contributions. The dynamical models have a median forecast of 3.97 million square kilometers with an interquartile range of 3.68 to 4.35 million square kilometers.

At the end of the first week of July JAXA extent is 12th lowest for the date in the satellite era:

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for June 2024 reveals a modelled Arctic sea ice volume of 13.49 thousand km³, which is 10th lowest for the date:

The end of June thickness map shows plenty of open water in the Beaufort and Laptev Seas, together with a persistent area of thick ice along the Siberian coast of the Chukchi Sea:

In other news the fast ice has finally broken up along the full length of the Nares Strait:

To be continued…