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Remarks by Executive Vice-President Timmermans and High Representative/Vice-President Borrell on the new outlook on threats of climate change and environmental degradation on peace, security and defence.
It’s abundantly clear that the growing impacts of the climate crisis and environmental degradation around the world have implications for our security as well, whether it’s food security, economic security, but also security in the traditional sense of the word. And the facts are increasing with the intensification of the climate crisis.
We see radicalisation, displacement, hunger, migration flows, of course, and an increasing number of conflicts over water and land that are happening. The more intense and frequent the droughts, the wildfires and environmental destruction will be, the worse these conflicts will become.
Josep has spoken often about the Sahel as an example. It is a hotspot in the whole sense of the word. 50 million people there depend on livestock, on agriculture, which makes them very vulnerable to climate change. This adds to conflicts between farmers and herders, a dynamic already exploited by radical groups. When I was in Africa, very often leaders spoke to me about that, herders coming into the land of farmers and this creating conflicts.
Competition for scarce resources is not just for those countries aiming to strengthen their own systems, it is also an attempt to control and influence economic security. We’ve all experienced over the last year how Russia would try to weaponize its energy resources. We all know the horrific actions of the Wagner group across Africa to wreak havoc on populations and at the same time extract raw materials, spread disinformation and try to weaken democratic governance in Africa.
These worrying trends in our immediate neighborhood add to the reasons for presenting this new outlook on climate and security today.
Already in the United States, they have determined that climate change is a national security interest. The United Nations Security Council debated this topic again two weeks ago – its seventh debate in two years’ time. So, Europe needs to up its game as well.
The good news is that we don’t have to start from scratch. Much is already being done in defense, in international partnerships and crisis response. But so far, we have not come out with a comprehensive analysis of this nexus of climate change, environmental degradation, peace, security, and defense.
We are setting out how we will integrate these challenges into our analysis, policymaking, and planning, but also how we will apply this knowledge in our operations overseas and our work with partners. We must work proactively and comprehensively. That’s not an easy task, but it is an essential one for the future security of our own continent.
Before handing over to High Representative Borrell, allow me to address briefly the issue of geoengineering. I see that this has already raised quite some interest in the media.
It is indeed a novelty for the Commission to address this issue. But do not get overexcited. We’re not proposing a radical new approach here. We note that geoengineering is discussed and explored in several parts of the world and that it is considered by some as a potential future response to climate change.
This is an issue with global implications and considerable risks. Nobody should be conducting experiments alone with our shared planet. So, what we’re saying today, very simply, is that this should be discussed in the right form, at the highest international level.
To conclude, the challenges stemming from the climate and biodiversity crises are ever-more present in our daily lives. We must continue preparing for these new realities, and all the consequences they have for our societies and their security.
Remarks by High Representative/Vice-President Borrell
Our first Executive Vice-President [for the European Green Deal, Frans Timmermans] is in charge of climate policy, and climate policy has security [implications].
I am in charge of Foreign [Affairs] and Security Policy, and I have to take into account the climate change as a source of insecurity. That is why we have been working together and presenting together this Joint Communication [on the climate and security nexus] from both point of views – climate [change] as a generator of insecurity and security policy taking account the climate constraints and policies.
We are here to discuss this emerging threat in our security.
Security has become a multidimensional concept. Energy security, economic security, climate security, [or] food security. There are a lot of issues that have ‘security’ attached to them, which makes the work to fight against insecurity much more complex.
Today, we are here to talk about an existential threat to humanity. More than an insecurity challenge, it is an existential threat: [climate change and] environmental degradation affects peace and security.
There is a map of the world [in the Annex of the Joint Communication] where you can see where the high-level intensity climate incidents have happened. You immediately see that these are the places where big troubles are also happening.
It is a clear coincidence of climate problems and troubles from the point of view of instability, fighting, wars [in the] whole Sahel area, Caucasus, Africa, some parts of South-East Asia, [and] some parts of Latin America. It is amazing how, maybe, there is a correlation that does not explain everything but it is clear that there is a cause-effect issue between climate effects, security and peace.
You, Frans, mentioned some interesting cases, but from my perspective, let me add that people will be on the move: [by 2050], more than one billion people will have insufficient access to water. More than one billion people will have to move just to look [for] water. Soil degradation could rise to 90%, and this awful drought that we are suffering in Europe shows how the vegetation can die, because [of lack of] irrigation and too much heat.
By the way, our army helicopters cannot fly as high as they used to because it is too hot, and the engines do not work. So, we have to review all the machinery of our warfare because of the high temperatures. And the demand for food will increase by 60% meaning that more water is needed when water will become less available.
In the Lake Chad basin, for example, serious water scarcity, food insecurity and resource competition are fueling grievances, instability and conflict in the whole Sahelian region.
In Afghanistan – look at Afghanistan, while we talk about the Taliban– [where] the rise of temperatures, lower levels of rainfall, weak infrastructure and water management [systems] threatens the livelihoods of millions of rural Afghans in an already fragile context.
And Afghanistan is building a canal to take water from a river on the border with their neighbours that will divert an important flow of water that Afghanistan certainly needs, but the neighbours say: “Look, this is a war case. If you take the water up the river, we will not be able to maintain our agricultural activities down the river. So, this is a war case.”
The Arctic is another example. The Arctic is the new geo-political frontier.
Javier Solana in 2008 said that climate change was a ‘threat multiplier’. 15 years later, we see that it is certainly true.
And [we have] to have to work and [on] how to work, let me just mention [some examples]:
- A dedicated hub that our European Union Satellite Centre to generate more data and analysis.
- Deploying environmental advisers in all our Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions and operations [by 2025].
- Setting up a ‘Climate, Security and Defence Training Platform’ at the European Security and Defence College.
- Develop[ing] an EU Climate and Defence Network together with our Member States, greening our armies. We know that the armies are not the greenest thing in the world, but we can do [it], we can make them greener.
- Invest[ing] in partnerships and pay attention to the last issue that you mentioned, Frans [Timmermans], the geo-engineering, which should not create a distraction from tackling the root causes of climate change nor offer polluters an avenue for avoiding taking measures.
But certainly, it is something that has to be taken into consideration and [that] has important security consequences because it is in itself, depending on how it is being implemented, an additional danger.
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